Statistics are not always the best lens through which to examine a predator community. We’ve written before how populations vary and individuals within those populations vary, so a textbook or field-guide that describe the standard behaviour of a species needs to be given context: where the data was accumulated, the type of study, how long the study took, how many individuals were studied, etc. A book on the leopards of the Kruger National park might be almost irrelevant when dealing with the leopards of the Aberdares in Kenya, so much do the respective habitats – and therefore potentially the habits – differ.
The statistics pertaining to male lion survival rates say that only about 1 in 8 males makes it to maturity. I regret to say I haven’t kept track of male vs. female cubs in the last while, especially in those litters that haven’t survived very long, so I can’t speak with any authority on this over the last few years at Londoz. What I will say though, is as depressing as that figure might read for a male cub, the reality behind his chances of actually succeeding as a male lion are significantly slimmer…
The last decade at Londolozi has been fairly turbulent as far as male lions go, as at least 8 coalitions have moved through and attempted to stamp their mark on the reserve; Mapogo, Majingilane, Selati, Styx, Fourways, Matimba, Matshipiri and Birmingham, to say nothing of various interlopers and vagrants like the Kruger males, Talamati males, Ottawa male and others.
I may well be forgetting one or two as well.
Simple presence counts for nothing in the greater scheme of things though. As a male lion, you have failed unless you sire offspring, and have managed to see those offspring through – or at least facilitated their being raised by the lionesses – to independence.
Now my memory is often faulty when it comes to this type of thing, but as far as I can recall, only three coalitions have sired offspring that have made it to independence on Londolozi since (and including) the Mapogo.
Starting with that notorious group of males, the only effective breeding males after them have been the Majingilane and now the Birmingham males. I initially wanted to include the Matimba males on this list, as they definitely sired cubs with the Tsalala pride, but come to think of it, none of those cubs survived, which means they don’t qualify. I’m not too sure of what cubs they have sired elsewhere, but on Londolozi they effectively have no legacy.
Three groups of successful males in close on a decade? That’s not many. And I’m still wary of using the word “successful” to refer to the Birmingham males, as they have a long way to go before their current crop of cubs reaches independence. As impressive as 15 young ones is in a pride is, they aren’t out of the woods by any means, and with one of the coalition in a bad way, they may have their work cut out for them.
You will read about how high the mortality rate is among lion cubs. You will read that young nomadic males are regularly killed by dominant territorial males. In fact most works on male lions will state emphatically that they have only a very slim chance of even making it to adulthood. 1 in 8, as stated above. That’s 12.5%.
What you don’t often read is how slim their further chances are of actually acquiring a territory and holding on to it for long enough to be considered genetically successful.
If we look at all the coalitions above, the one thing the reproductive ones had/have in common is their size. I’m talking about numbers, not individuals. The Mapogo were 6-strong originally, and both the Birminghams and Majingilane were 5-up when they entered the reserve. Almost all the others were pairs, with the occasional group of three. And none of them stuck around very long. The Matimbas probably lasted the longest out of the duos.
Larger coalitions are more likely to survive adolescence. They are more likely to be able to overthrow a territorial male or coalition when they approach maturity. They can cover oestrus lionesses while still (as an entity) patrolling and defending territory effectively.
Taking this into consideration, it looks as though the genetic lottery needs to massively be on your side as a male to be born into a pride along with a number of other males of similar age. These brothers and cousins will nearly always be the coalition that you end up becoming nomadic with. If you are surrounded by female cubs and there are only one or two males to eventually head out into the big unknown with, good luck!
If we run the numbers on the listed Londolozi coalitions above, we’re only looking at around 9 males that successfully sired cubs in the last 9 years.
Two from the Mapogo (the others were in the western sector at the time), 4 from the Majingilane and 3 from the Birmingham males (the male who died was gone before helping sire the current Ntsevu litters).
Add in all the other males who failed, and we have a total of about 22 (excluding vagrants), and I’ll throw in the deceased Birmingham male as well as he still helps make up the numbers (although dead, his brothers are reproducing, so I guess he can technically be considered a success if the Ntsevu cubs make it).
9 out of 23 is about 40%.
If you have only about a 12.5% chance as a male lion of making it to maturity, and then only a 40% chance of securing your lineage, you are looking at around a 5% chance of passing on your genetic line.
Wow! That’s one in 20 male lions that are born that will actually go on to have their progeny make it to independence.
Remember, these are all rough calculations based solely off Londolozi’s lion population. What coalitions have done elsewhere I’m not too sure of (I know both Majingilane and Birmingham have fathered cubs in the norther sector of the Sabi Sand, as did the Mapogo in the western sector). I’m simply using localised data and observations to highlight just how high the odds are stacked against you as a male lion.
I may well have forgotten litters or males that have come through, and I may have even got the paternity wrong in a few instances.
I’m simply trying to stress the point that if you’re born a male lion, you’ve got a 95% chance of not contributing to the furthering of your species!
Reincarnate me as a dung beetle rather; life’s probably less stressful!
If there is just one male cub in a litter, his chance of survival must be even slimmer. He probably can’t survive on his own and what is the odds that he will meet up with another male lion to form a coalition? Or can he survive on his own?
Off topic a bit, but–we saw African male lions at Tswalu immediately after leaving Londolozi. It appeared to us that they were much larger than ones seen at Londolozi. Possible?
Always possible. There is quite a bit of variation in size amongst male lions. For example, the Matimba males were massive; significantly bigger than the Majingilane (or so they appeared)…
James, so true. I really like this blog – it shows how difficult it is to make it as a male lion.
Thanks Joan
GREAT article James and I agree wholeheartedly about the “success” factor of any coalition being the number of offspring they saw through/facilitated being raised to adulthood, and while the Ntsevu cubs haven’t reached there yet, the Birminghams have had success with the Prides they sired in the North (5 -1 male, 4 females – with the Nkuhuma Pride, and I believe 7-8 – 1 male, 6-7 females – with the Torchwood Pride, and I’m not sure at the moment of the makeup of the remaining Styx youngsters).
The Matimbas sired the four older Nkuhuma Lionesses, and I believe some of the Torchwood lionesses are theirs as well, and possibly in the Talamati Pride, though I’m not 100% sure on that.
Do you know how many of the Ntsevu cubs are male?
Thanks Michael.
I really need to get up to date with who is who in other parts of the reserve, so thanks for that info, it really helps!
I don’t actually know offhand how many cubs are male and how many are female. I’ve been a bit slack finding this out but I’ll ask around.
Given the population of the Ntsevu pride cubs, I would imagine there are a few males that could potentially form a coalition if they survive to adulthood. I’m guessing that the time frame would be at least 2-3 years and then they would have to challenge the reigning coalition- correct? It actually seems more females survive….. perhaps not so much competition?
I think it’s that nomadic period for males that costs a lot of them their lives. If females make it beyond 2 years they are mainly going to stick with their natal pride (although not every time, eg. Mhangeni and Ntsevu), so yes, far less competition…
There should be enough males among the Ntsevu cubs to form a decent coalition if they make it to independence. It’s usually around 5 years old (roughly) that they will think of starting to challenge for territory…
Excellent pictures and updates…keep up the good work
Thanks Jim.
We’re releasing a fun video today. Be sure to take a look…
Great article James fascinated by the dynamics. In 2015 we saw the Tailless female looking after 4 sub adults of which 3 were male that could have formed a coalition. I always wondered what happened and suspect the moved into the main Kruger.
Mike, unfortunately, only 1 male is alive. He was actually on Londolozi’s soil in the southern sector recently feeding on a buffalo kill. He is still nomadic but in great shape currently. He roams around Lions Sands KNP mostly. The other 2 males were electrocuted in January due to a power line falling in a lightning storm near Skukuza.
Mike, the story of the Tailless Female with those 4 cubs amazed me and I looked for any and all updates I could find on them. It is my understanding only 1 of the 3 males remain. The other 2 were killed in a freak accident in Kruger in January of this year when a heavy thunderstorm brought down power lines and they were 2 of 6 animals electrocuted. I have never rooted for a lioness like I do their sister, the one and only remaining Tsalala Lioness.We are fortunate she is here on Londolozi to be able to see updates on her.
The Tsalala Lioness is a Majingilane? The Matimbas didn’t father any female cubs either?
Is is quite disheartening to know the low percentage of survival for these spectacular males. Thank you for you post
Hi MJ.
Yip, very low percentages sadly. A successful male lion is a rare thing!
Thanks James for this blog story. So many people have no idea how important the dynamic of the male coalition is. I have shared this blog story with so many friends of mine in America where I live to help them understand these beautiful cats and how their lives are so important. Have been to Africa many times and have seen so many beautiful lions but not yet to Lodolozi, hopefully soon! Cheers
The life of a male lion is hard.
Thank you for letting people know just what odds are stacked against these majestic beauties!! I knew it was slim but did not realize it was this slim. Sad when you think about it and on top of it all, the ones that do make it, have to worry about being hunted for them to hang on someone’s wall!! I would hate to think that there would be no lions left in this world for my grandchildren to see such power and beauty in their lifetime!! Much appreciation and respect from North Carolina.