The winds of change are sweeping across Londolozi’s lion territories, and for those of us who have witnessed the Ndzhenga Males’ impressive four-year reign, there’s an undeniable tension building in the southern reaches of their domain. What was once their stronghold now feels eerily quiet, abandoned in favour of northern pursuits that may ultimately seal their fate.

The Ndzhenga Male proved us all wrong. After they arrived in the latter part of 2021, none of us were overwhelmed with confidence in the new era of a dominant coalition. Four years later, we sit here eating our words; however, eras do come to an end…

For years, the Ndzhenga Coalition has commanded respect across the central and eastern parts of Londolozi, their presence alone enough to deter rival males and secure their breeding rights. Yet recently, their movements tell a different story entirely. The powerful duo has been pushing further and further northwards, drawn perhaps by territorial pressures or new mating opportunities with the Nkuhuma Pride, but in doing so, they’ve left behind a vacuum that nature abhors.

The Kambula Pride seem to have split. Four Lionesses have remained within the usual territory with six new cubs, whilst the oldest of the Lionesses have broken away with 11 sub-adults who have seemingly been looking for new territories much further south.

The catalyst for this shift appears to be the Kambula Breakaway Pride’s current situation. With no immediate mating opportunities presenting themselves from this pride, the Ndzhenga Males seem to have redirected their focus elsewhere. However, this strategic withdrawal from their southern territories has created an opening that rival coalitions are beginning to exploit with increasing boldness.

The unlikely challengers. These males brought together by situation and not by blood has been an interesting dynamic that very few thought would ever pose a significant threat to the Ndzhenga Males however the lack of the Ndzhenga’s presence has presented the biggest opportunity for these males to take advantage of.

Enter the opportunists. The Nkuhuma and Talamati Coalition, never ones to miss a territorial advantage, have been spending considerably more time in these previously well-guarded southern reaches. Their presence alone signals a potential shift in the power dynamics that have defined this area for so long. But they’re not the only ones sensing opportunity in the air.

Characterised by their unbelievable size, the two brothers are easily distinguishable, with one having a very dark mane (the larger of the two) and the other having a slightly lighter mane.

The Gijima Males, the most impressive of the threats to the Ndzhenga Males, have also begun making more frequent appearances in these southern territories. Is this a potential opportunity for revenge? Just months after the four Ndzhenga Males arrived on Londolozi, they managed to kill the third Gijima Male in an altercation in the deep south. Now primed with experience, size and strength, the Gijima Males have my vote of confidence.

Alongside various nomadic males (The Nkuhuma Breakaway Male, The Styx Male and The Fourways Males) testing the waters, the landscape is beginning to resemble a chessboard where the next move could determine the fate of multiple prides. The question isn’t whether change is coming – it’s how quickly it will unfold and which coalition will emerge victorious.

What makes this situation particularly nerve-wracking is the timing. The Ndzhenga Males’ latest litter with the Kambula Pride represents not just their genetic legacy but also some of the most vulnerable lives caught in this territorial upheaval. These cubs, still dependent and defenceless, face an uncertain future should their fathers fail to maintain dominance. History has shown us repeatedly that new dominant males rarely tolerate the offspring of their predecessors, making every day that passes without the Ndzhenga Males’ strong presence in the south increasingly precarious.

Although the four Lionesses of the Kambula Pride will fiercely defend the six newest additions to the pride, without the protective care of the Ndzhenga Males, the Kambula Pride will be faced with a very significant challenge over the coming months in ensuring the safety of the cubs.

While it’s difficult to contemplate the potential downfall of such an established coalition, there’s an undeniable excitement brewing around the prospect of new leadership. The thought of fresh blood taking control, particularly the impressive Gijima Males, adds an element of anticipation to our daily game drives. Their strength, combined with their growing confidence in these territories, suggests they could very well be the coalition to watch.

The light-maned Gijima Male rests atop the bank of Tugwaan Dam after one of their furthest territorial advances, making their way all the way up to the Sand River east of our camps.

The Ndzhenga Males built their reputation on strength and strategic territorial control, but empires built on power alone are only as strong as their ability to defend every corner of their domain. By abandoning the south, they’ve inadvertently started a countdown that may well determine not just their future, but the fate of every pride within their shrinking sphere of influence.

As guides and conservationists, we watch these dynamics unfold with both professional fascination and genuine concern. The clock may indeed be ticking for the Ndzhenga Males, and only time will reveal whether they can reclaim their southern stronghold or if we’re witnessing the dawn of a new era in Londolozi’s lion dynamics. And something we must never forget, this is a completely natural process, where only the strongest survive, and the value of new, fresh genetics coming into an area is vital for the overall lion population.