I will never forget the first night that I spent at Londolozi. Myself and the newest group of Londolozi rangers were lucky enough to spend our very first night under the stars, on the banks of the Sand River. As much as I wanted to stay awake to take in the beauty of the Milky Way and constellations moving across the sky, the sound of the fire crackling nearby and the therapeutic noise of the Sand River flowing a few days after being in flood was enough to induce one of the best nights of sleep I have ever had!
So why am I telling you about this? After driving along the Sand River on a game drive a few days ago I started to wonder whether the Sand River would again flood this coming summer. The water level of the Sand River and its potential to flood directly correlates to the amount of rainfall to the west of us up into the Drakensberg mountains. Since that first night under the stars, we have experienced above-average rainfall on the reserve, and around the country too. The predictions, however, for this coming summer, and potentially the next few years are that rainfall will be below average. Potentially significantly below and this is due to the phenomenon of El Nino and La Nina. Last year Chris Taylor wrote a blog on the phenomenon of El Nino and its counterpart La Nina, I thought it relevant to remind you as the reader (and me…) about these climatic phenomenons in light of El Nino being on the horizon.
The Sand River from above.
Without getting into a detailed scientific explanation, I’ll touch on the cause of El Nino and La Nina and the effects they have on the South African (and therefore Londolozi’s) weather. Both El Niño and La Niña are two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is a climate pattern that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which leads to drought conditions in Southern Africa and increased rainfall and flooding in the eastern stretches of the Americas. La Niña, on the other hand, is the opposite phase. It is marked by cooler sea surface temperatures in the same tropical Pacific region. It typically brings about increased rainfall and cooler conditions in Southern Africa and dry weather phases in the western Pacific and the Americas.
The Nhlanguleni Female lies on a granite boulder in the Sand River during a sudden outburst of rain.
These events typically last about a year, but can sometimes continue for longer. They occur every two to seven years, on average, but not on a regular schedule. For the last three years, we have experienced a La Nina cycle and have therefore enjoyed above-average rainfall. Climatologists however expect that we are entering the cycle of El Nino, bringing with it warm, dry conditions.
Below is an incredible video documenting the transformation of the bushveld as it recovered from the last drought here where we had experienced an intense El Nino.
So what does this mean for the animals? The large herbivores that are heavily dependent on water are the first to feel the effects of drought. Less rainfall results in the river and water holes drying up causing more competition for space amongst hippos and limited drinking water for Elephants, buffalos and the like. Predators on the other hand tend to thrive. Weak prey becomes easy targets and the blood they consume at these kills is a form of hydration itself.
The Tortoise Pan Male (when he was a lot younger) sitting next to a waterhole during the tail end of the last drought.
So although we have had an incredibly healthy amount of rain over the last little while, this could be changing going forward and things may begin to dry out a little more. But with everything out here, nature will take its course and with the harsher times, the weaker animals and the weaker genes are eliminated and the stronger animals and genes survive and thrive. Rain is a blessing and as quickly as it can bring life, so too can it take it away. Time will tell whether a period of drought is in fact going to strike and if so, just how dry it will be.
Very interesting information Robbie related to your summer rains. You discussed El Niño and La Niña that are topics circulating in our news here in Northern California. Like the Sabi Sand, we had extraordinary rains last winter, flooding many areas and dropping record snowfall in the mountains.
The world would like seasons of perfect weather. I still think in the future we will better be able to control weather patterns along with the weather itself…just not in my lifetime!
Thanks Robert for the El Niño and La Niña update. I hope that the rains come but know that survival will happen no matter what occurs.
Wonderful video…nature is harsh but hold on to hope for renewal! Climate change and lack of action world wide sure isn’t helping tho 🙁
Hi Robbie thanks for your interesting story of the weather pattern. It is so hot and dry lately and as you say we are heading for a drought and we hope it won’t be for too long. Nothing and no one can survive without water. Very interesting how the weather patterns turns.
Thanks for the interesting information on rains and drought. I do hope for all the animals and people at Londolozi and Southern Africa in general that the rains will be good enough to keep life going that the conditions might not become too harsh.